A total of 9.02 quadrillion Btu (quad) of renewables will be consumed by 2030, compared with 5.70 quads in 2003, says Department of Energy.
The estimate was prepared in the DOE’s Energy Information Administration in its ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2006.’
At 9.02 quads, that will be 6.7 percent of the country’s total energy consumption of 134 quads in 2030, led by oil at 54 quad (annual increase of 1.1 percent), natural gas at 28 quad (0.7 percent), coal at 34 quad (1.7 percent), nuclear at 9.09 quad (0.4 percent) and other sources at 0.05 quad.
Primary energy production will be led by coal at 34 quad, dry natural gas at 21, oil at 12, with renewables and nuclear both at 9 quad by 2030, out of a national production total of 89 quad.
Emissions of CO2 will be increased to 8,115 Mt by 2030 from 5,815 Mt in 2004, an annual increase of 1.2 percent. The average delivered price of electricity is predicted to decline from 7.6 cents per kWh to 7.1 cents in 2015 as a result of falling natural gas prices and to a lesser extent coal prices. After 2015, average prices will increase to 7.5 cents per kWh in 2030.
The forecast consumption of coal, nuclear and renewables have been increased from earlier predictions, while petroleum and natural gas consumption are lower, due to higher anticipated energy prices for oil and gas, as well as lower projected growth rates in the manufacturing sector which traditionally is the most energy-intensive industry. There will also be greater penetration by hybrid and diesel vehicles in the transport sector and higher efficiency regulations will reduce energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors, and slow the growth of electricity demand.
Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels in the reference case (including ethanol for gasoline blending) will grow from 6.0 to 9.6 quad as a result of state programs (RPS and mandates) for green power, technological advances, higher petroleum and natural gas prices, and the effects of federal tax credits. More than 60 percent of the projected demand for renewables in the reference case is for grid-tied generation (including combined heat and power), while the rest is for dispersed heating and cooling, industrial uses, and fuel blending.
Coal will remain the primary fuel for power generation through 2030, with its share of total generation increasing from 50 percent in 2004 to 57 percent in 2030. The share of natural gas will increase from 18 percent to 22 percent by 2020 before falling to 17 percent in 2030.
