Key Takeaways:
When an HVAC system fails in institutional and commercial facilities, occupant comfort suffers, energy costs rise and building performance declines. Yet finding skilled technicians to keep these systems running has become harder than ever.
The HVAC talent pipeline is not keeping pace with demand. According to TechForce Foundation’s 2025 Technician Supply, Demand & Opportunity Report, the industry needs over 41,000 new technicians each year. But training programs produce about 26,000 graduates annually, leaving nearly 15,000 positions unfilled and creating a workforce gap of over 36 percent.
The shortage comes as demand for HVAC expertise accelerates. Energy-efficiency upgrades, building modernization projects, healthcare expansion and data center construction fuel the need for more skilled technicians.
The challenge for facility managers goes beyond filling today’s vacancies. The bigger question is how to build a sustainable workforce to support increasing complex buildings for years to come.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects HVAC employment growth of 8 percent through 2034, with approximately 40,100 job openings annually. This means that by 2029, the industry will need over 205,000 HVAC technicians.
While many workforce shortage discussions focus on retirements, the HVAC industry faces a bigger challenge because it is experiencing growth from multiple directions at once.
One major factor is the changing role HVAC plays in the modern economy.
“When people hear HVAC, they think residential,” says Jennifer Maher, CEO of the TechForce Foundation. “We need to amplify that it’s much broader than that. HVAC technicians are critical to manufacturing facilities, hospitals, data centers and other commercial buildings that people depend on every day.”
The growth of artificial intelligence (AI) will further increase demand. Every new data center supporting AI workloads, cloud computing and digital infrastructure requires sophisticated cooling systems. Manufacturing facilities, hospitals, office towers, warehouses and educational institutions also rely on complex HVAC technologies.
“We’re bringing all of these data centers up,” Maher says. “We need to put our foot on the pedal.”
Educational completions in HVAC programs increased 8.6 percent last year, reaching 23,251 graduates. Nationwide, 669 institutions now offer HVAC programs, and interest in skilled careers is growing among younger generations. And TechForce reports that over 100,000 students and working technicians are active on its platform, with thousands of new users joining each month.
“This data shows that the pendulum has swung,” Maher says. “For the last 30 years, parents, school counselors, grandparents and influencers have often discouraged students from pursuing careers in the skilled trades. It was viewed as a less-than option. Today, that perception is changing.”
The data shows young people are prioritizing careers with high earning potential, reduced student debt, and definite job prospects over traditional four-year college degrees.
Here, HVAC has emerged as an attractive alternative. For good reason. The median wage for HVAC technicians is $59,810 annually, with top earners making over $91,000. Those wages are above the national average and can be achieved without a four-year degree.
Still, Maher warns that while enrollment is increasing, it’s still not enough to close the gap.
“The bottleneck is complex,” she explains. “With the retirement tsunami coming and a smaller population of young people pursuing the trade, we still need to educate more young people, veterans and career-changing adults about the scope of opportunities for an HVAC tech.”
Too often organizations view workforce development as someone else’s responsibility. Facility operations cannot afford to take that approach, according to Maher.
“Everybody whines about the problem, but few take steps to change it,” she says. “If we keep doing that, then nothing’s going to change.”
She says facility leaders must actively take part in building the HVAC talent pipeline.
One of the most effective strategies is developing relationships with local technical colleges, trade schools and workforce development organizations. Facility managers can serve on advisory boards, take part in career fairs, host facility tours and offer job-shadowing opportunities.
“You’ve got to stock the pond to go fishing,” Maher says.
Maher adds that many students are unaware of the opportunities in commercial HVAC. While they may be familiar with residential work, they know little about HVAC careers in healthcare facilities, airports or data centers.
“Open up your facility and offer field trips or job shadowing opportunities,” Maher says. “You must paint the picture earlier, while these students are still in high school.”
Those efforts can help students see HVAC as a technology-focused profession involving sophisticated building automation systems, sensors, controls, energy management platforms and advanced mechanical systems.
TechForce’s research also highlights several underutilized talent pools for facility managers to draw from.
Veterans are one of the strongest opportunities. Many veterans leave military service with experience maintaining complex mechanical and electrical systems and are seeking civilian careers that allow them to apply those skills.
Another opportunity exists among disconnected youth, which TechForce defines as individuals between the ages of 16 and 24 who are neither employed nor enrolled in school. Many of these individuals are hands-on learners, according to Maher. While they may not have excelled in traditional academic settings, they have problem-solving skills that technical careers demand.
Women also remain underrepresented in HVAC. In fact, the report found that 98.2 percent of HVAC technicians are men. “When half of the population doesn’t see themselves as acceptable in an HVAC role, no wonder you have a shortage,” Maher says.
Facility managers can address this imbalance by making sure recruiting materials, workplace culture and advancement opportunities appeal to a broader range of candidates.
While industry growth drives much of the current shortage, retirements put added pressure on the workforce. Over 17 percent of HVAC technicians are age 55 or older, meaning many experienced professionals are nearing retirement.
As experienced technicians leave the workforce, facility operations risk losing decades of institutional knowledge. This challenge is acute in facilities that operate aging HVAC equipment, legacy building automation systems and older boilers that require specialized knowledge to maintain. Without a plan to transfer that expertise, decades of hard-earned know-how can walk out the door when employees retire.
Maher encourages organizations to use apprenticeships as a knowledge-transfer strategy.
“You need to bring in apprentices now and have them work alongside technicians who are nearing retirement,” she says. “Those retirees are going to take a heck of a lot of knowledge with them.”
Finding technicians is only half the battle. Keeping them is equally important, according to Maher.
She stresses that younger workers want transparency, career progression and clear development pathways. “They want to know how the game is played,” she says.
Organizations that clearly communicate advancement opportunities, certification pathways and skill-development expectations can improve retention while building future leaders.
“The No. 1 thing you can do is have a career map,” Maher says, noting this roadmap doesn’t guarantee promotion but shows employees the skills they need to develop and what opportunities exist within the organization when they do.
The HVAC technician shortage will not disappear overnight.
Even with growing tech school enrollment, the industry faces a labor supply gap that threatens building operations across nearly every economic sector.
It is no longer enough to post job openings and hope qualified candidates appear. Recruiting demands active participation in workforce development, partnerships with educational bodies, expanding recruitment reach, and facilitating knowledge transfer from experienced technicians to the next generation.
The organizations that invest in those efforts today will be better positioned to support critical building systems tomorrow.
“In an economy increasingly dependent on cooling infrastructure, building automation and energy-efficient operations, developing HVAC talent is no longer simply a workforce issue. It is a business continuity strategy,” Maher says.
Ronnie Wendt is the owner of In Good Company Communications and a freelance writer specializing in articles for the facilities management, aviation, RV and automotive, meetings and events, security, logistics and business technology industries.
