ARI cited the strong economy, continued growth in housing starts, and rebuilding in the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast as contributors to the record.
December’s robust shipment total -- more than 590,000 units, a 45 percent increase from December 2004 -- was due in part to a last minute flurry of shipments prior to the Jan. 23, commencement of the new 13 SEER minimum efficiency standard. Manufacturers were clearing out the remaining 10 SEER units to make room for the new, more efficient models, according to ARI.
The group says that annual shipments have exceeded 5 million units every year since 1995.
ARI is predicting that the transition to 13 SEER will likely have a dampening effect on unitary equipment sales, if the 1992 transition is any guide. That year, the minimum efficiency level rose from 8 SEER to 10 SEER, and unitary shipments fell a little more than one percent compared to the previous year.
It is important to note, however, that in 1991, the industry SEER average was 9.5, so the increase in 1992 was only one-half point. In 2005, the industry SEER average was 11.2, so the increase is significantly higher this time around, which could exacerbate the dampening effect above what it was during the last transition.
Several factors could limit the dampening effect, however. If high energy prices continue more homeowners might opt to upgrade to higher efficiency equipment, which would partially negate the negative effect of the transition. In addition, continued growth in housing starts would also be beneficial for unitary shipments. Furthermore, continued rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will necessitate shipments to that region above what would otherwise be expected.
