The state-by-state analysis, the first of its kind, concludes that the potential U.S. market for grid-connected solar rooftop PV could reach 2,900 MW per year by 2010, assuming that the solar industry can achieve a "breakthrough" price of $2.00-$2.50 per installed watt. This would be enough new electricity, brought online in just one year, to power more than 500,000 average U.S. homes. Moreover, the study found there is enough suitable rooftop space on residential and commercial buildings to sustain this annual level of growth.
Key findings from the study show that in 2010:
At $2.00-2.50 per installed watt, the annual market potential for grid-connected residential and commercial building PV applications is estimated at 2,900 MW, representing an annual market of about $6.6 billion (equipment and installations).
Rooftop space is not a constraining factor for solar development. Residential and commercial rooftop space in the U.S. could accommodate up to 710,000 MW of solar electric power (if all rooftops were fully utilized, taking into account proper orientation of buildings, shading from trees, HVAC equipment, and other solar access factors). For comparison, total electricity-generating capacity in the U.S. today is about 950,000 MW.
The Pacific and Mid-Atlantic regions together would account for 52 percent of the potential residential and commercial sector demand. California alone has the potential for about 40 percent of the total building rooftop market potential — through a combination of favorable sunlight levels and high retail energy prices.
Other distributed forms of PV electric generation, including ground-mounted PV, car ports, curtain walls (a type of commercial building window), and awnings could further add to the potential identified by Navigant Consulting.
For additional information, or to download the complete study, go to www.navigantconsulting.com or www.ef.org.
