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Rents to Keep Falling in 2010, Survey Says
Roughly three-quarters of executives expect both commercial property values (76 percent) and asking rents (73 percent) to continue to fall in 2010, according to a recent online survey of more than 325 executives conducted by Deloitte.
survey of more than 325 executives conducted by Deloitte.
Roughly three-quarters (74 percent) of executives expect interest rates to rise in 2010, with 48 percent expecting rates to increase by 50 basis points or more, according to the online survey. Executives also think cap rates (59 percent) and discount rates (57 percent) will rise; 40 percent predict cap rates to rise by 50 basis points or more and 35 percent anticipate discount rates will rise by 50 basis points or more.
Almost two-thirds (63 percent) of executives surveyed predict that a full recovery of the market will require two to three years, while 29 percent believe a full recovery will take four years or longer. Only 8 percent anticipate a full recovery within the next year.
"Right now, commercial real estate executives are weighing their options, determining if the time is right to invest while prices remain depressed and before interest rates begin to rise," says E.J. Huntley, principal, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP.
Of the executives surveyed, 47 percent were either already investigating potential acquisitions, or expect to begin doing so within the next year (20 percent).
Nearly half (46 percent) of respondents feel today's lower prices make it more financially advantageous to buy rather than lease. In fact, 51 percent of real estate company executives and 39 percent of commercial property tenants said their companies are currently investigating potential acquisitions.